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But, really, uncertainty is there always, not just when we choose to see it.That can be a comfort when something doesn’t go your way—you can feel some sense of relief knowing it may not have been your fault. ” (You’d employ this system if you were about to jump into a cage full of hungry lions.Except some polls were giving him a 35 percent chance at winning.
She also learned that, no matter much she improved, luck and chance would play a role in the outcomes of her bets—she could make the best decision possible given the information at hand, and still lose money.But she also knew that bets don’t just happen at the poker table.In fact, every choice we make in life is a bet: from the job we take to the appetizer we choose at dinner.So it gets you working on your “stuff we don’t know” box, too.
Two things determine how your life turns out: the quality of your decisions, and luck. “Resulting” = when you equate the quality of a decision with the quality of its outcome. Hindsight bias is the tendency, after an outcome is known, to see the outcome as having been inevitable.Uncertainty isn’t always bad—in fact, it sometimes works in your favor.